The Interest Rate People

Latest market driven forward curves for cashflow modeling, including shock scenarios.

Captures stress in the banking industry, which in turn slows lending and investment.

Market positions on 10yr rates which suggests bias for higher/lower rates.

German Bund is the primary alternative to 10T. If Bund moves higher, gives room for 10T to move higher.

Interest rates accounting for inflation.

Interpolated market projections for future 10 year Treasury yields.

An inverted yield curve signals a recession about 2 years in advance.

Historically, this spread has been 0.31%. Will the current spread regress to the mean?

Do Fed tightening cycles push us into recessions?

Combined Fed and ECB bond holdings ($) as part of QE policies.

Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, with a 2% long term goal.

Measures the degree of financial stress in the market via 18 data series.

Generally a lagging indicator, sub-100 strongly suggests we are in a recession.

When loan growth contracts, we generally have a recession.

Delinquency rates above 1.5% start raising serious concerns.

Above 0 indicated tight financial conditions, while below 0 indicate loose financial conditions.

Readings above 20 have always resulted in a recession, but doesn’t provide much lead time.