The Interest Rate People

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Quick Rates

Treasurys

Term Last Change
2 year 2.908% 0.03
5 year 3.048% 0.02
7 year 3.136% 0.02
10 year 3.196% 0.02

Swaps

Term Last Change
2 year 2.941% 0.01
5 year 3.027% 0.01
7 year 3.054% 0.01
10 year 3.101% 0.02

Floating Indices

Term Last Change
1M LIBOR 2.280% 0.00
Fed Funds 2.250% 0.00
SOFR 2.190% 0.00
Prime 5.250% 0.00

Interest Rates

Captures stress in the banking industry, which in turn slows lending and investment.

Latest market driven forward curves for cashflow modeling, including shock scenarios.

Floating Indices

Term Last Change
1M LIBOR 2.280% 0.00
3M LIBOR 2.469% 0.02
Fed Funds 2.250% 0.00
SOFR 2.190% 0.00

Captures stress in the banking industry, which in turn slows lending and investment.

Latest market driven forward curves for cashflow modeling, including shock scenarios.

Caps Calculator

$
Strike 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 48 Months
2.50% $86,000 $258,000 $465,000 $693,000
3.00% $24,000 $105,000 $230,000 $375,000
3.50% $11,000 $43,000 $108,000 $193,000
4.00% $7,000 $22,000 $57,000 $102,000

An inverted yield curve signals a recession about 2 years in advance.

Historically, this spread has been 0.31%. Will the current spread regress to the mean?

Market positions on 10yr rates which suggests bias for higher/lower rates.

German Bund is the primary alternative to 10T. If Bund moves higher, gives room for 10T to move higher.

Interpolated market projections for future 10 year Treasury yields.

Interest rates accounting for inflation.

Treasurys

Term Last Change
2 year 2.908% 0.03
3 year 2.985% 0.02
5 year 3.048% 0.02
7 year 3.136% 0.02
10 year 3.196% 0.02

10T Forward Rate

Term Last
1-Yr Fwd 3.28%
2-Yr Fwd 3.30%
3-Yr Fwd 3.32%
4-Yr Fwd 3.35%
5-Yr Fwd 3.38%

An inverted yield curve signals a recession about 2 years in advance.

Historically, this spread has been 0.31%. Will the current spread regress to the mean?

Market positions on 10yr rates which suggests bias for higher/lower rates.

German Bund is the primary alternative to 10T. If Bund moves higher, gives room for 10T to move higher.

Interpolated market projections for future 10 year Treasury yields.

Interest rates accounting for inflation.

Swaps

Bank
CMBS
Term Last Change
2 year 2.941% 0.01
3 year 3.007% 0.01
5 year 3.027% 0.01
7 year 3.054% 0.01
10 year 3.101% 0.02

Measures the degree of financial stress in the market via 18 data series.

Readings above 20 have always resulted in a recession, but doesn’t provide much lead time.

Generally a lagging indicator, sub-100 strongly suggests we are in a recession.

Above 0 indicated tight financial conditions, while below 0 indicate loose financial conditions.

Delinquency rates above 1.5% start raising serious concerns.

Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, with a 2% long term goal.

When loan growth contracts, we generally have a recession.

Latest Newsletter

America First vs Made in China 2025

Last Week This Morning 10 Year Treasury grinded higher to 3.19% German bund fell 3bps to 0.46% 2 Year Treasury hit 2.90% after hawkish FOMC minutes on Wednesday The 10T was below 2.90% as recently as September 6th, but, you know, whatever… FOMC minutes confirmed a hawkish Fed with a majority expecting to push Fed […]

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