I’m thankful it’s been in the 70s and sunny for a week. How do we make this happen all the time? Some people are thankful for the seasons – not me. Give me 70 degrees and sunny and 0% humidity 365.
I’m thankful that James Franklin is gone from Happy Valley. I don’t think Terry Smith will be the next coach, but I’m thankful I got to spend the last month watching him in action.
I’m thankful for the clients I meet like Jeff and Jamie that know who The Real Boss™ is…and for all The Real Bosses™, like Alison, in their lives.
I’m thankful Japan didn’t learn from our post-Covid spending spree and just passed a $112B stimulus package. “Hey, $112B doesn’t sound so big…” you might be wondering. Keep in mind that $112B in Japan is the proportionate equivalent of about $1T here. I’m thankful I can now buy Japanese bonds at their highest yields in nearly 20 years and 30 year bonds at the highest yield ever. I’m thankful Japan, and not the US, is the most indebted country in history. I’m thankful our deficits are shrinking, albeit it marginally.
I’m thankful the yen carry trade could lead to a 20% equity sell-off here, making it cheaper to buy stocks. I’m less thankful that this could lead to a surge in Treasury yields here if Treasury holdings are liquidated to cover shorts.
I’m thankful Marjorie Taylor Greene is resigning from Congress and it’s the direct result of a fracture between her and Trump. My mom taught me that if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all…but I bet she would make an exception for MTG. She can’t exit stage left fast enough.
I’m thankful I don’t have to make a token joke about eating too much and needing sweatpants with an elastic waistband. I’m thankful you are too sophisticated for those cheap jokes.
I’m thankful the ICE crackdown in Charlotte, codenamed Operation Charlotte’s Web, was short-lived. I can only take so many videos of civilians’ car windows being smashed open with rifles. I’m thankful the granddaughter of the author E.B. White said, “My grandfather believed in the rule of law and due process and certainly didn’t believe in masked men, in unmarked cars, raiding people’s homes and workplaces without IDs or summons.” I’m thankful our youngest asked, “If they’re really just protecting us, why do they need to have masks on?” I always land on the side of law and order, but the last week didn’t feel like that.
I’m thankful that the Fed views a 60% market probability of a rate cut as the threshold to change market sentiment. With odds of a December cut currently priced at 71%, the Fed will ramp up “we aren’t cutting” rhetoric if they believe they aren’t cutting on 12/10. I’m thankful I don’t have to wait long since this is the last week of permitted chatter before next week’s dark period.
I’m thankful the market finally stopped overreacting to an absurd NFP print and chose to instead focus on the unemployment climbing to 4.4%. And that “hey, we actually lost jobs in August” might matter – the second month in the last six to show negative job growth.
I’m thankful the Atlanta Fed GDPNow projects 4%+ GDP. Maybe AI-boosted productivity will help us grow our way out of the slow growth, deficit funded quagmire. And maybe, just maybe, we’ll have real economic growth instead of tax-payer funded stimulus. I’m thankful more streamlined regulation might open some eyes to the real role of the government as a facilitator and not the driver of the US economy.
I’m thankful that so many Fed officials believe the labor market is doing just fine because we’ve had 1.1mm layoffs through the first 10 months of the year, the 2nd highest since 2009. I can exhale and totally ignore those depressing stats. Plus, I’m thankful these Fed officials aren’t worried that 1.9mm Americans have been unemployed for 27+ weeks…the highest since covid. Whew.
I’m thankful that A&M has become the best football team in the state of Texas without all the obnoxiousness that generally accompanies the tiniest amount of success from the Longhorns or Cowboys.
I’m thankful the Fed has been stressing data-dependence for the last five years and then the government decided it would be fun to remove the data. The BLS is just like, “nah, no CPI” for the first time since 1994.
I’m thankful the Cowboys benched their star WRs for all of one series to show how serious they are about following the rules. That sort of commitment is sure to help the Cowboys maintain their current status.
I’m thankful Trump again said he would “love to fire” Powell and told Bessent that if he didn’t remove Powell, Trump would fire him, too. Make Rates Interesting Again! I’m thankful the Real JP won’t go gently into that good night. I’m thankful our forefathers did an incredible job instituting checks and balances, even when it might lead to divisions.
I’m thankful to my good buddy Arun who took us to the Perlant in Atlanta, the absolute coolest spot I’ve been to in a long time. You gotta know a member to get in and I am definitely beneath their Mendoza line.
I’m thankful the T10 is close to 4% but wouldn’t mind if it were more like 3.75%.
I’m thankful this is our 7th Thanksgiving with Jay $ as Fed Chair, even if I wish it wasn’t our last. The next Fed Chair won’t share my initials and is unlikely to have a nickname that rolls off the tongue as well as Jay Money.
I’m thankful Jay $ won’t be the only lame duck in 2026. If MTG is abandoning ship, I suspect that ship is sinking…
Most importantly, I’m thankful that Philly schools are still taking the rivalry with the Cowboys seriously even though Dallas hasn’t been relevant since The Real Boss™ was in high school.