If you visited any federal government websites recently, you got a glimpse of DJT doing what he does best – bringing people together!
White House (look at that hi-res imagery!)
State Department
HUD
In 2017, I bought the URL “firejamesfranklin.com”. We were up against Ohio State 38-27 with 5 minutes to go. Fourth and 1. We called a stupid pass play and threw into double coverage, which of course fell incomplete. We went on to lose 39-38. That rage sent me to GoDaddy and each year since, I've renewed it for just $0.99. I never got around to building a site...until the UCLA loss tossed me over the edge yesterday.
Oh, and Saturday night apparently a lot of people also went to GoDaddy trying to buy the URL. I woke up Sunday morning to dozens of messages about how Franklin must go and how the site needs to get up and running. I’m a man of the people, so I spent Sunday morning on just that. Also, GoDaddy estimates the URL value at $539 today! If it increases just another $55,999,461, we can buy out Franklin’s contract!
Like Franklin, if the government isn’t going to do its job, then I guess I need to step up. In lieu of the BLS, I’d like to introduce the PLS…Pensford Labor Statistics!
Last Week This Morning
- 10T: 4.12%
- 2T: 3.57%
- SOFR: 4.20%
- Term SOFR: 4.10%
- JOLTs Job Openings: 7227k vs 7200k expected
- Consumer Confidence: 94.2 vs 96.0 expected
- ADP Employment Change: -32k vs 51k expected
- Fed Speeches:
- Fed Hammack: “So, again, to me, I balance those two sides of our mandate, I think we really need to maintain a restrictive stance of policy so that we can get inflation back down to our goal.”
- Fed Musalem: “I am open minded to future potential reductions in interest rates. I do believe we need to move cautiously because the room between now and the point where policy becomes overly accommodative is limited.”
- Fed Logan: “A modest further increase in labor market slack is likely necessary to finish restoring price stability.”
- Fed Jefferson: “We have enough information to do our job... My expectation is that I’ll be well informed before I go into the October meeting.”
Pensford Labor Statistics (PLS)
-53k
Drop in 3-month average NFP over the last year, from 82k to 29k
-32k
Job losses last month measured by ADP
38k
Job gains last month as estimated by Revelio
150k
Job gains last month as estimated by Homebase, 200k of which come from teachers returning to work
3.2%
Odds of PSU making the playoffs the Hiring Rate, the lowest since April 2020
947k
Employer announced job cuts from January through September, the highest level since 2011
205k
Employer hiring intentions from January through September, the lowest level since 2009
1.9%
Odds of James Franklin beating Ohio State the Quits Rate last month, the lowest since May 2020
245k
Google searches for “COBRA insurance” last week
55%
Probability that the UR was either 4.3% or 4.4% according to the Chicago Fed’s probability model
300-0
NFL home teams when scoring 40+ points before the Cowboys tied the Packers last week
27
Days since I said in a newsletter that the Longhorns are just the Texas version of PSU
45.3
Millions of American manufacturing jobs created since DJT took office
31-24
My prediction of Oregon beating Penn State
30-24
Actual final score of Oregon beating Penn State, only because Oregon was forced to go for two in 2OT
107,878
Dumbasses that sprung for White Out tickets knowing full well what Franklin & Co. would do
- Also, that’s actually the number of tech jobs lost so far this year
- The real attendance was 111,015, but I figured there were about 3,137 Duck fans there
45.3
Whoops, the US has actually lost manufacturing jobs since Trump took office, and 45.3 is the third lowest ISM Manufacturing Employment reading since April 2020
190k
SMBC’s forecasted manufacturing job losses in the Q4 ahead
8
Number of all NFL players that have more rushing TDs than Jalen Hurts through their first six seasons
1,041
Days since floating rates were this low
3,270
Days since James Franklin beat a top 10 team at Beaver Stadium
343
Number of job applicants to a Pensford Analyst job posting in just five days
0
Number of Conference Championship appearances by the Cowboys in 30 years
2
Number of Birds Super Bowl wins since Dak was drafted
100%
Odds of me lashing out at Cowboys because I’m so cranky about the Penn State vs Oregon game
Rates
Fed Funds will be below 4.00% in the near future, and likely below 3.75%.
SMBC believes the Fed will cut four more times by the end of Q1 2026, which would put us at 3.00% - 3.25%. The basis of this call is a private sector labor market ratio that has a strong correlation with Fed Funds.
Bloomberg’s rates team thinks continued labor weakness will also push the T10 to 3.86% by year end. I can hear the entire broker community cheering…
Interestingly, they project the T10 at 3.77% at the end of next year – barely any change.
I know I’m beating a dead horse, but it’s important to remember that the T10 is already pricing in 5 rate cuts by y/e 2026, so you should not assume it will move lower with each cut in the coming months. Bloomberg’s team is suggesting bad news will increase the number of cuts, which in turn will push the T10 lower as well.
The Week Ahead
If the government goes back to work, the labor data will come out and the market will react. I think there’s a chance it comes out stronger than expected, if for no other reason than all those teachers returning to work. Lots of Fed speeches to keep us busy, though.
Actual text exchange with me predicting the Oregon score.
And if you’re wondering why I haven’t dedicated any time to the UCLA loss yesterday, that’s because I wrote this before Penn State lost to one of only four winless teams…the only team in the country where every single coach on the staff has an “interim” tag…where a bottom 10 offense put up 40+ on one of the allegedly best defenses in the country…
